🎲 Fractional Kelly Sizing

How much of your capital should go into each high-volatility stock — and how much to keep as cash. Based on the Kelly criterion (maximize long-run log-growth while avoiding ruin).

Key idea: holding cash is mathematically the same as Fractional Kelly — you trade a little growth for a lot of safety (and dry powder). Full investment (100%) is over-betting in Kelly terms. Half-Kelly is the practical standard. Kelly is extremely sensitive to your expected-return estimate — treat outputs as a ceiling, not a target.

1) Stocks & expected return

Add symbol KR 6-digit code or US ticker

Expected return source History over-fits — manual lets you be realistic.

Per-stock cap (%) Tail-risk defense (delisting). 40% recommended.